On-Chain Metrics Signal Bitcoin Bull Run Intact Despite Pullback
Bitcoin’s correction to around $107,000 has sparked concerns of a market top, but on-chain metrics indicate the bull run remains intact. CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman highlights key indicators: declining BTC reserves on exchanges point to modest selling pressure, while long-term holder accumulation continues. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has stayed below 50 since July, reflecting strong network activity. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator has not reached its historical top threshold of 3.6, suggesting the market isn’t overheated. The adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) hovers just above 1, indicating limited overvaluation. Miner reserves have only fallen by 6,000 BTC this year, remaining at 1.805 million BTC, unlike previous cycle peaks when miners sold heavily. Combined with growing institutional adoption, spot ETFs, tokenization, and DeFi interest, these on-chain signals support the view that Bitcoin’s bull run can continue if demand persists.
Bullish
Historical Bitcoin cycles have often featured sharp corrections that preceded further rallies. Key on-chain metrics—including NVT, MVRV, aSOPR and steady miner reserves—are not signaling an overheated market. Declining exchange balances and sustained long-term holder accumulation reinforce buying pressure. Combined with growing institutional adoption, spot ETFs and DeFi growth, these factors point to renewed upside potential. Traders can treat the current pullback as a healthy correction and a possible entry point, supporting a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.