Bitcoin Outlook Turns Bullish as Security Risks and Token Losses Rise
Bitcoin has moved above its 50-week moving average near $79,000, with analyst PlanB projecting a test of the 100-week average around $89,000 and declaring the bear market over. Bitcoin’s monthly RSI rose to 51, while the share of BTC supply in profit increased to 72%.
Market interest is also being driven by institutional and leveraged positioning. Strategy shares gained 48% over the past month, making it the Nasdaq 100’s best-performing constituent. Large traders reported exposure to BTC, ETH, ZEC, HYPE and ENA, although some positions are hedged with shorts.
Security and regulatory risks remain significant. North Korea-linked hackers reportedly infected more than 30,000 devices through fake recruitment campaigns and stole about $10.71 million from over 7,000 crypto wallets. Fetch.ai and NuNet suffered attacks causing combined losses of roughly $2 million, while MultiversX paused its mainnet after identifying an exploit involving its virtual machine.
Kalshi and Kraken parent Payward have applied to launch perpetual contracts linked to US stocks. Universal will shut down its cross-chain asset protocol on 17 November, giving users 60 days to redeem assets. Meanwhile, an Istanbul investigation uncovered an alleged $3 billion crypto and foreign-exchange investment fraud network.
Neutral
The overall market signal is neutral because strong Bitcoin momentum is offset by substantial security, regulatory and liquidation risks. Bitcoin’s move above the 50-week moving average, improving RSI and rising supply in profit are typically bullish trend indicators. Strategy’s 48% gain and large leveraged positions in BTC and ETH may reinforce positive sentiment in the short term.
However, these signals are partly concentrated among major assets and aggressive traders. The reported theft of $10.71 million from crypto wallets, the Fetch.ai and NuNet attacks, and the MultiversX mainnet pause could pressure affected tokens and reduce risk appetite across the market. Similar exchange hacks and bridge exploits have historically triggered short-term selling, wider spreads and higher demand for stablecoins, even when Bitcoin later recovered.
Regulatory applications for stock-linked perpetual contracts could support long-term market infrastructure and institutional participation, but approval is uncertain. Universal’s shutdown also highlights adoption and sustainability risks among cross-chain protocols. Traders should therefore treat the Bitcoin breakout as a potential trend continuation rather than confirmation of a risk-free bull market. BTC strength may continue to attract capital, while smaller tokens exposed to exploits, unlocks or thin liquidity remain vulnerable to sharp declines.