Bitcoin Bear Market Not Coming: Key Levels Point to Bullish Reversal
A technical analyst, Crypto Patel, argues that the Bitcoin bear market narrative is overstated and that BTC’s recent drop is likely a temporary “liquidity grab,” not the start of a sustained bear cycle. After BTC fell to around $60,000 in February (down ~45% from an October 2025 all-time high above $126,000), Patel says traders are over-relying on the four-year cycle thesis while waiting for a bear market to arrive.
His key trigger is a weekly close above $76,000. If achieved, Patel claims the selloff would be consistent with an “expanded fiat deviation” pattern that historically traps bearish traders near major cycle lows and can precede a sharp upside reversal. He contrasts today’s macro/setup with 2018 and 2022: Patel highlights that the current environment includes spot ETFs, ongoing institutional buying, and state-level strategic reserve efforts—factors absent in prior downturns. He also points out that prior 2022 weakness was driven by structural blowups (e.g., leverage fraud, the LUNA crash, FTX, Celsius, and Three Arrows Capital), rather than a clean cycle top.
Patel’s bullish roadmap outlines another resistance area near $98,000. A weekly close above $98,000 would further invalidate the Bitcoin bear market thesis and could spark a second wave toward ~$150,000, with a longer-run push to ~$200,000 if momentum sustains. For traders, the immediate focus is whether BTC can reclaim/hold $76,000 and later clear $98,000 on a weekly basis.
Bullish
The article is fundamentally a bullish technical thesis against the “Bitcoin bear market” narrative. Crypto Patel’s argument hinges on weekly confirmation levels: reclaiming $76,000 would suggest the drop was a liquidity grab rather than a new bear cycle, and clearing ~$98,000 would more decisively invalidate the bear thesis. This framing matters for traders because weekly closes often act as regime-change signals; if price holds above those levels, it can trigger short covering, trend-following re-entries, and improved risk-on sentiment.
Historically, similar “liquidity sweep / deviation” ideas resemble past cycle-low behaviors where sharp selloffs pause, then reverse once forced sellers are exhausted. Patel also contrasts the current setup with 2018 and 2022, implying fewer structural catalysts for a prolonged bear market (unlike 2022’s major exchange/leveraged blowups such as LUNA, FTX, Celsius, and Three Arrows Capital). Short-term, the market may treat $76,000 and $98,000 as magnet/decision points, producing volatility around those zones. Long-term, if ETF/institutional inflows and the post-halving supply shock continue, the odds increase for a sustained recovery toward the cited higher targets—though the thesis remains conditional on price confirmation.