Bitcoin Buy Zone Signals DCA as Analyst Maps $54K–$40K Targets
Bitcoin (BTC) saw heavy June losses, dipping to multi-year lows near $59,000 and $58,000. Analyst Ali Martinez says BTC is entering a long-term “accumulation zone,” anchored to the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Martinez notes BTC rarely trades below the 200-week SMA for long. With the 200-week SMA around $63,500 (BTC lost it earlier this week), he argues this area is where traders may want to deploy dollar-cost averaging (DCA). He also warns that falling under the 200-week SMA doesn’t guarantee a bottom.
In a market-structure post, Martinez highlights downside scenarios. He outlines potential dip targets at $54,000 and even $40,000. His approach: spread buy orders across roughly the $58,000–$40,000 range to build a position while price remains at a technical discount.
Key level: $63,500. Martinez says a “high-timeframe reclaim” of the 200-week SMA could act as macro support and signal early bull-run conditions.
Historical examples where BTC tested the 200-week SMA and later surged include: 2015 (+8,500% from bottom to top), 2018 (+267%), 2020 (+1,125%), and 2022 (consolidation below SMA, then a +680% expansion after reclaim). Martinez’s conclusion: the bottom is “almost in,” but further volatility is still possible.
Neutral
The news is mildly constructive for BTC long-term positioning but not a clear near-term bullish trigger. Martinez frames BTC’s location near the 200-week SMA (~$63,500) as an accumulation opportunity, supporting DCA entries (bullish bias). However, he explicitly allows for additional downside to ~$54K or even ~$40K, which can keep volatility elevated and delay a decisive bottom (bearish risk).
In similar past cycles (2015, 2018, 2020, 2022), BTC’s tests of the 200-week SMA were followed by large rallies, but the path often included prolonged uncertainty or further drawdowns before confirmation. Traders may respond by scaling in rather than going all-in, watching for a reclaim of the 200-week SMA as the confirmation signal. That combination typically reduces panic selling in the medium term while making short-term price action choppy—hence a neutral overall impact.