Bitcoin Falls Below $63K as Short-Term Holders Capitulate; Weekly RSI Nears Record Lows
Bitcoin fell about 4% in 24 hours to an intraday low near $62,700 as short-term holders resumed selling, pushing BTC below $63,000. Short-Term Holder SOPR dropped below 1 to 0.95, signaling renewed loss realization among short-term holders after recent macro headlines. Glassnode data show the 90-day SMA of realized profit/loss ratio has fallen below 1, confirming a transition into an excess loss-realization (capitulation) regime. Seven-day EMA of short-term holder net realized losses cooled from a peak of $1.24 billion/day on Feb. 6 to roughly $500 million/day, indicating reduced intensity but ongoing pressure. Bitcoin’s weekly RSI reached about 25.7 — described as “most oversold” — levels previously seen before major bottoms, suggesting short-term weakness but a possible long-term recovery. Market indicators such as the fear & greed index and declining bullish sentiment point to a stressed market that may be forming a base. This situation presents heightened volatility and downside risk in the near term, while historically similar capitulation events have preceded extended recoveries.
Bearish
The article documents renewed selling pressure from short-term holders, SOPR falling below 1, and a weekly RSI at record oversold levels — all classic signs of capitulation. Short-term net realized losses remain substantial (though cooling), and sentiment metrics (fear & greed, declining bullish forecasts) indicate broad risk aversion. In the short term this increases downside risk and volatility: traders may see continued liquidation, pressure on funding rates, and potential short squeezes if oversold conditions trigger rapid rebounds. Historically, similar capitulation episodes (e.g., post-Luna/3AC) produced steep short-term declines followed by multi-month recoveries once selling exhausted. Therefore, while the market structure is bearish now, these oversold readings can mark a tactical opportunity for longer-term entries if traders wait for confirming signs of a bottom (reversal in SOPR, stabilization of weekly RSI, rising on-chain inflows). Risk management (position sizing, stop-losses) is crucial given potential for additional downside before a durable recovery.