Bitcoin turns cautious as U.S. 2-year yields near 4%

Bitcoin is turning cautious as U.S. bond yields move toward 4% and macro pressure rebuilds. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is showing technical strength (a potential head-and-shoulders setup), which—if confirmed—could push yields above the 4% threshold and tighten financial conditions. That typically revives risk-off sentiment and pressures risk assets. The macro backdrop is inflation-related. U.S. inflation rose to 3.3% in March (highest since May 2024), while the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%. Investors are adopting a more defensive posture, and higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding volatile assets like Bitcoin. Still, Bitcoin’s linkage to bonds is not dominating. The article cites a 39% correlation between Bitcoin and bond yields, implying partial independence: higher yields may add downside risk, but they are unlikely to fully dictate price direction. Bitcoin can extend gains if spot demand remains strong. U.S. demand indicators are mixed but supportive. The Coinbase Premium Index stays positive around 0.031, suggesting American buyers still pay a premium versus global markets. At the ETF level, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nine straight days of net inflows, totaling about $823 million by April 24, though daily inflows reportedly moderated to $14.45 million—signaling some cooling at higher prices. Crypto traders should watch whether U.S. 2-year yields confirm an upside breakout above 4%. If they do, Bitcoin could face stronger macro headwinds; if not, there may be room for accumulation.