Bitcoin Eyes $90K at Christmas but 2025 Ends in the Red
Bitcoin recovered modestly over the holiday week, briefly testing near $90,000 after stronger-than-expected US CPI data but repeatedly failed to sustain breakouts. Price moves: a short surge to almost $90K, rejection under $85K, recovery to $90.4K, then falls below $87K, fluctuating around $87–89.5K and currently near $88.3K. BTC remains year-to-date negative after starting 2025 above $94K. Market cap reclaimed about $1.76 trillion and BTC dominance sits near 57.7%. Major altcoins showed mixed weekly performance: ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE and ADA slightly down; BCH, XMR, ZEC modestly up; CC and UNI posted the largest gains. Notable headlines include analyst forecasts of an extended bear market (possible bottom in late 2026), a Binance USD1 pair flash-wick to $24K explained as an illiquid pair event, a $7M Trust Wallet drain with potential insider involvement, and Tom Lee’s Bitmine accumulating ~98,852 ETH (now 3.37% of supply). Key metrics: market cap $3.06T, 24h vol $93B, BTC $88,300 (+0.5%), ETH $2,955 (-0.1%), XRP $1.87 (-0.2%). Traders should note repeated failed BTC breakouts, elevated volatility around macro prints (CPI), and mixed altcoin strength — factors that favor cautious position sizing and watching macro catalysts and on-chain flows into ETFs or large accumulators for directional bias.
Neutral
The report presents mixed signals rather than a clear directional catalyst. Short-term price action shows failed BTC breakouts near $90K and repeated rejections, which are bearish signals for immediate momentum. At the same time, market cap recovery to ~$1.76T, continued accumulation by entities like Bitmine, and only modest weekly losses suggest underlying demand and resilience. Macro sensitivity — especially to stronger-than-expected CPI prints that produced sharp intraday moves — increases volatility and uncertainty. Altcoins are mixed, with some pockets of strength (CC, UNI) and others lagging, reducing a broad-market bullish argument. Combined, these factors imply a neutral-to-cautious outlook: traders should expect choppy price action, trade with tighter risk controls, watch macro datapoints and large on-chain flows for breakout confirmation, and avoid committing large directional positions until BTC can sustain a clear breakout above $90K or break decisively below the recent $85–87K support zone. Historical parallels: previous cycles where macro surprises produced transient BTC spikes often led to short-lived rallies followed by consolidation or further drawdowns until macro clarity returned.