Bitcoin slips as CME gap eyed, Kelp rsETH DeFi hack hits altcoins
Bitcoin pulled back after a Friday rally, trading just below $75,000 versus $78,300 highs, while ether fell to around $2,300 from $2,460. Traders are watching a CME futures “gap”: CME BTC futures closed at 77,540 and opened at 74,600, leaving a 3.8% upside gap. Similar gaps have previously been filled, keeping some upside optionality for Bitcoin.
However, broader risk sentiment weakened. Oil jumped after renewed Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions, and Nasdaq 100 / S&P 500 futures were down. At the same time, a $292 million exploit tied to KelpDAO’s rsETH triggered DeFi contagion fears, pressuring altcoins and liquidity.
DeFi impact was most visible in Aave: Aave TVL reportedly fell from $26.5B to $17.5B. The exploit raised concerns about bad debt in Aave’s WETH pool and drove rapid withdrawals. Market derivatives also turned cautious: funding rates for BTC and ETH flipped negative, and Deribit options kept calls relatively less bid than puts, signalling lingering downside concern. Crypto open interest stayed near $120B, while volume rose about 30%, suggesting faster rotation rather than fresh long capital.
Bitcoin’s relative strength versus the altcoin complex was still noted, but the combination of the Kelp rsETH fallout and macro pressure keeps traders focused on downside hedging even as the CME gap narrative supports potential bounce setups.
Bearish
整体偏看跌:一方面,CME BTC期货“缺口”叙事可能带来回补式反弹,为比特币提供情绪支撑;但另一方面,KelpDAO rsETH相关的2.92亿美元攻击引发DeFi“传染”担忧,Aave TVL大幅回落并带来WETH池流动性紧缩,通常会抑制风险偏好并强化对冲需求。再叠加油价走高和美股期货走弱的宏观扰动,市场更容易进入“先防守、后等证据”的交易节奏。
短期上,负资金费率(BTC/ETH)+ 期权定价对下行的定价倾向,往往意味着上冲会更易遭遇抛压或继续以对冲为主;同时成交量上升但未平仓未明显扩张,常见于轮动与仓位再平衡,而非单边资金入场。
中长期则取决于DeFi风险是否被隔离、借贷系统坏账担忧能否缓解。历史上大型DeFi漏洞后,市场通常先经历流动性撤出与估值下修,待清算与风险敞口澄清后,才可能回到“缺口/技术面”驱动的反弹轨道。当前信息更偏向风险事件尚未完全消化,因此对交易更不利。