Founder Warns Bitcoin Could Collapse in 7–11 Years
Cyber Capital founder and CIO Justin Bons predicted a dramatic Bitcoin collapse within 7–11 years, warning that diminishing block rewards and a shrinking security budget threaten the network’s integrity. By then, the block subsidy will fall to 0.39 BTC per block—about $2.3 billion annually—far below the level needed to secure a multi-trillion-dollar asset. Bons cites two charts showing mining revenue in sharp decline and an annual security budget slipping from over 8 % in 2015 to around 1 % in 2025. Unlike Ethereum’s successful shift to fee-based security, Bitcoin remains reliant on subsidies. Falling miner incentives could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to 51 % attacks, censorship, and chain splits. Proposals like raising the 21 million cap or introducing tail emissions would compromise scarcity and risk fracturing the community. The forecast has sparked debate: some trust transaction fees, scaling solutions or sidechains to sustain security; others suggest institutional mining support. Bons argues that such measures would undermine core values. Bitcoin currently trades near $115,318, and the prospect of a Bitcoin collapse has generated bearish sentiment among traders.
Bearish
Justin Bons’s prediction of a Bitcoin collapse undermines confidence in the network’s long-term security. In trading, security risks often translate to increased selling pressure, as seen after previous halving events when miner profitability concerns triggered market dips. Although some analysts argue that higher transaction fees and institutional miners could mitigate these risks, the dominant narrative remains negative. Short-term, traders may reduce long positions and increase hedging, potentially pushing prices down. Over the long term, if Bitcoin fails to introduce sustainable security measures, market stability could weaken further, prolonging bearish sentiment and deterring new investments.