Expert: Bitcoin Could Collapse in 7–11 Years as Miner Rewards Fall
Justin Bons, founder and CIO of Cypher/CyberCapital, warns Bitcoin (BTC) faces structural security risk that could lead to collapse within seven to eleven years as scheduled halvings cut miner revenue. Bons argues miner revenue — the network’s security budget funded by block subsidies and transaction fees — will shrink after two to three more halvings, making sustained high transaction fees or near-exponential BTC price growth the only realistic ways to maintain security. He says rising hashrate alone (from more efficient hardware) does not substitute for falling revenue because attacker costs fall if rewards decline. Bons flags that the security budget as a share of market cap is trending downward, and projects that the cost to mount 51% or double-spend attacks could become economically viable, enabling profitable rollbacks on exchanges. He presents two stark options: (1) raise supply above the 21 million BTC cap (likely a contentious fork), or (2) keep the cap and accept higher attack risk. The thesis has prompted pushback from parts of the Bitcoin community citing layered defenses — sustained hashrate, energy costs, and future protocol or fee-market innovations — but Bons’s note highlights a genuine incentive-design vulnerability that traders should monitor. Near-term market implications include elevated tail risk for custodial exchanges, potential increases in risk premia for BTC, and renewed debate over protocol-level responses to long-term security funding.
Bearish
Bons’s thesis points to a structural, long-term weakening of Bitcoin’s security budget as block subsidies halve — a factor that raises systemic risk for BTC price. For traders, the immediate effect is an increase in tail risk and risk premia: custodial exchanges and institutional holders may face higher counterparty and custody risk if attack feasibility rises, which can depress sentiment and demand for spot BTC. Short-term price reactions could include heightened volatility and risk-off flows into stablecoins or other assets when the debate intensifies or if notable market participants express concern. Mid-term, speculation over protocol responses (fee-market shifts, soft/hard forks, or proposals to alter supply incentives) could create event-driven volatility and spur arbitrage opportunities. Long-term, if miner incentives do materially weaken and attackers find profitable vectors, confidence in BTC as secure settlement could erode, pressuring price structurally. Offsetting factors that temper the bearish view include: rising hashrate driven by technological improvements, persistent or rising energy costs for attackers, potential increases in transaction fees if usage grows, and protocol or market-based innovations to shore up incentives. Overall, the news raises bearish pressure on BTC until and unless clear, credible mitigations for miner incentives emerge.