Bitcoin may have priced tighter policy early as Fed-cut odds fall, Bitwise says

Bitwise research says Bitcoin has already absorbed the impact of tighter monetary policy, while equities look more vulnerable to fresh macro shocks. The catalyst is energy volatility: tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have lifted oil and natural gas, strengthening inflation expectations and pushing markets to trim Federal Reserve rate-cut bets. On rate-cut pricing, odds shifted away from near certainty. The probability of no rate reduction in 2026 has risen to about 40%. Bitcoin is down roughly 23.7% year-to-date and slipped below $70,000, but Bitwise argues this selloff reflects earlier risk repricing rather than a late reaction to the latest energy-driven data. Key signals traders may watch: the Mayer Multiple has remained in the lower end of its historical range since January, suggesting a valuation reset in crypto. Bitcoin’s dominance has also tightened market structure, with higher correlation across altcoins—consistent with a more single-factor, BTC-led environment. Trading takeaway: if macro shocks continue to pressure liquidity expectations, Bitcoin’s earlier valuation compression could help limit leverage-driven downside versus stocks in the short run.