Bitcoin Correction: Potential Decline Amid ’Dead Cross’ and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Bitcoin is currently facing significant selling pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainty and recent U.S. tariff announcements. The cryptocurrency has been trading between $81,000 and $86,000, facing key resistance at $84,800 and finding support near $81,000. A ’Dead Cross’, marked by the Bitcoin Realized Price Model, indicates that the market correction phase could persist for about 57 more days, having been active for 28 days already. Analyst Bilal Huseynov suggests Bitcoin could drop to $75,000 if the signal remains, while Axel Adler points out the importance of tracking realized prices of new investors versus long-term holders. Despite these bearish indicators, long-term holders exhibit confidence, evident from a stable Coin Days Destroyed metric, suggesting low selling pressure among seasoned investors. The historical average of correction phases is 85 days, and the market is experiencing low volatility with potential for upward momentum if the $81,000 support holds.
Bearish
The news indicates a bearish outlook for Bitcoin due to several critical factors. Firstly, the presence of a ’Dead Cross’ suggests a potential for further declines, with Bitcoin possibly dropping to $75,000 if support levels fail. The ongoing market correction phase, backed by macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff announcements, adds to the selling pressure. Although historical data suggests that these correction phases last about 85 days on average, almost a third of the current correction period still remains. Additionally, the Realized Price Model reflects that new investors may face pressures as their realized prices are lower than those of long-term holders, indicating ongoing market tension. However, the confidence from long-term holders suggests a potential buffer against deeper declines if the critical support at $81,000 is maintained.