Risk for Bitcoin Correction Dey Cause 10–30% Pullback Amid Record CTA Exposure
Risk for Bitcoin correction don height as CTA exposure for US equities don reach four-year high at 110% long. Options traders dey position put strikes between $100,000 and $80,000, show say dem dey expect 10–30% pullback for next month. Downward revision of 258,000 Nonfarm Payrolls jobs don increase market uncertainty, push CME FedWatch Tool make e signal 81.7% chance for 25 basis point Fed rate cut in September. Analysts Tom Lee and Jamie Cox expect eventual Fed pivot, fit be with 50 bp cut wey fit support risk assets like Bitcoin. For near time, high equity leverage and bearish options skew fit drive volatility. CryptoQuant’s Maarten Regterschot talk say Bitcoin no go likely break $112,000, predict say e go enter phase of “chopsolidation” no be sharp crash. Traders suppose dey watch CTA flows, options sentiment, and macro data revisions to fit handle possible volatility and consolidation.
Bearish
High CTA leverage and bearish options position weh dey happen as economy dey weak usually dey show say short-term sell-offs for risk assets dey come. The record 110% CTA exposure dey follow pattern of past times weh people force dem to reduce leverage—like di early 2021 equity pullbacks—wey make declines for equities and crypto plenty well-well. When you add the downward revisions to Nonfarm Payrolls and the high talk say Fed fit cut rates, Bitcoin go get more wahala with volatility and e fit get short-term correction. Even though long-term support fit come if Fed ease eventually make price stable, traders suppose ready make dem face bearish period before e fit calm down.