Bitcoin Could Fall to $10,000 in a 20% Stock Selloff
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone says Bitcoin could fall toward $10,000 if US stocks suffer a 20% correction. The scenario would mean an approximately 88% drop from Bitcoin’s recent level near $82,000, but it is conditional—not a confirmed price forecast.
McGlone argues that Bitcoin’s weakness, rising Treasury yields and tighter financial conditions may signal mounting pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin has historically been sensitive to liquidity and investor risk appetite, and its recent decline below $83,000 coincided with a stronger US dollar and leveraged liquidations.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju disputes the $10,000 outlook. He cites about $58 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows and 1.3 million BTC held by corporate treasuries, estimating an onchain cost-basis floor closer to $30,000 even if those positions were fully reversed. He also says $10,000 would imply an MVRV ratio near 0.2, below the 0.6 level he identifies as Bitcoin’s previous historical bottom. However, Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded $729 million in withdrawals over two sessions, underscoring the risk of changing investor sentiment.
The disagreement highlights how a potential US stock-market correction could affect Bitcoin, especially if leveraged positions unwind. Whether Bitcoin’s weakness precedes broader market stress or stabilizes without an equity selloff remains uncertain.
Bearish
The news is bearish for Bitcoin sentiment because it raises the possibility of a severe price decline tied to a 20% US stock-market correction. Rising Treasury yields and tighter financial conditions can reduce demand for non-yielding, volatile assets. If equities sell off, leveraged traders may face liquidations across markets, adding to short-term selling pressure. The recent $729 million in Bitcoin ETF withdrawals over two sessions also shows that institutional flows can turn quickly.
The risk is conditional, however: McGlone’s $10,000 scenario depends on a major equity correction, not simply on Bitcoin’s current weakness. Ki Young Ju’s cited ETF and corporate-treasury holdings, along with his estimated $30,000 onchain cost-basis floor, offer a counterargument, but neither historical valuation measures nor institutional ownership guarantees a price floor during extreme stress.
In the short term, traders may respond by reducing leverage, watching US equities, Treasury yields, the dollar and ETF flows, and pricing in greater downside volatility. A stock-market correction or sustained outflows could reinforce bearish momentum; stabilization in equities and renewed fund inflows could weaken the crash narrative. Over the longer term, the episode underscores Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic liquidity and risk appetite. It does not establish a long-term price direction, and the competing valuation arguments leave substantial uncertainty.