Bitcoin’s Critical Week at 100-Day EMA as Inflows Dry Up
Bitcoin faces a pivotal trading week as technical analysis and macro liquidity signals converge. The retracement below the 50-day EMA and a test at the 100-day EMA near $111,000–$112,000 highlight market hesitation. On-chain data shows steady liquidity but no fresh inflows to fuel a rally. Network growth is slowing, and Bitcoin struggles to break resistance at $116,500.
If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold the 100-day EMA, a short-term recovery may unfold, supported by Jerome Powell’s dovish turn and potential rate cuts in September. However, declining trading volumes suggest limited participation, raising the risk of a deeper correction toward the 200-day EMA around $104,000 if support fails. Conviction and new capital inflows are key to sustaining any rally.
Traders should monitor liquidity conditions, EMA support levels, and institutional demand closely. This week’s price action will likely set the tone for Bitcoin’s direction in the coming months.
Neutral
The outlook for Bitcoin is neutral due to mixed signals in technical and on-chain indicators. The test of the 100-day EMA near $111k suggests potential support, but the absence of fresh inflows and declining trading volumes point to uncertain momentum. Historically, similar pauses above key EMAs without strong capital inflows have led to consolidation phases, as observed in early 2023 when Bitcoin stalled at the 50-day EMA before resuming its rally. If Bitcoin holds current support, short-term bullish relief could emerge, supported by dovish Fed signals. However, failure to maintain the 100-day EMA may trigger a deeper correction toward the 200-day EMA around $104k, echoing the pullbacks seen in mid-2022. For traders, the balance between macro liquidity and institutional participation will dictate whether Bitcoin breaks out or enters a corrective phase. Thus, the market impact remains neutral until clear directional confirmation appears.