Moon Pursuit Founder Says Bitcoin Bottom Is In as Fed Risks Persist
Moon Pursuit Capital founder Utkarsh Ahuja says Bitcoin has likely reached its cycle bottom and may be starting a gradual recovery, though he expects intermittent corrections rather than a straight rally. He cautioned traders against reading too much into US midterm election results, saying liquidity, interest rates and the cost of capital matter more to Bitcoin’s direction. A US jobs report and the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision are key near-term tests. Ahuja also highlighted risks from restrictive monetary policy: US third-quarter growth was 3.4%, September annual PCE inflation was 3.6%, and the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% in October. Separately, Binance saw about $5.3 billion in net outflows after an October 29 hack, while OKX and Bybit reported inflows. Ahuja said those flows could reflect diversification, but traders should watch whether confidence concerns spread beyond Binance. Geopolitical tensions involving Iran could also push oil prices higher and keep pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Neutral
The report is balanced rather than a clear market catalyst. Ahuja’s view that Bitcoin has reached its cycle bottom supports a cautiously bullish longer-term narrative, but it is a market assessment, not confirmation of a trend reversal. In the short term, traders may remain sensitive to US employment data, the Federal Reserve’s December decision, election-related uncertainty and geopolitical developments that could affect oil and inflation. If data points to persistent inflation or tighter policy, higher yields and reduced risk appetite could weigh on Bitcoin, as seen in past periods when hawkish Fed signals prompted selling across risk assets. Conversely, softer data or a less disruptive political outcome could support a relief rally. Binance’s reported $5.3 billion in outflows may benefit rivals if funds continue shifting to other platforms, but could undermine confidence more broadly if withdrawal concerns spread across centralized exchanges. As in previous exchange stress events, sustained outflows, trading volumes and liquidity are more informative than a single headline figure. Overall, the possible recovery is offset by significant macroeconomic and exchange-related uncertainties, making a neutral classification appropriate. Traders may watch BTC price action alongside Treasury yields, dollar strength, rate expectations, exchange flows and oil prices.