Metrics Point to $60K as Bitcoin’s Cycle Low Despite Weak Market Structure
Bitcoin fell to $66,988 (down 1.75% daily, ~46% from $126K ATH) after a sell signal at $95K and a sharper decline from $90K to a low near $60K. Several on-chain and risk-adjusted metrics suggest this may be a cycle bottom: the short-term Sharpe Ratio plunged to -38 — levels previously seen only at major cycle lows (2015, 2019, 2022) — indicating seller exhaustion. Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio (scarcity) rose from 127 to 261, implying sharply reduced supply, while the MVRV Z-score fell to 0.445, signalling BTC is well below historical cost basis and potential wealth transfer from weak hands to longer-term holders. Technical indicators remain weak: RSI near 32 (close to oversold) and the DMI has shown a downtrend for 30 days, reflecting persistent selling and sidelined major buyers. Traders should expect BTC to trade in a $65K–$70K range if selling pressure persists; if the on-chain bottom signals hold and demand returns, BTC could reclaim $70K and target $90K. Key keywords: Bitcoin, BTC, cycle low, Sharpe Ratio, Stock-to-Flow, MVRV, RSI, DMI, scarcity.
Neutral
The article presents mixed signals. On-chain metrics (Sharpe Ratio at -38, SFR rising to 261, MVRV Z-score at 0.445) historically coincide with cycle bottoms and signal seller exhaustion and reduced supply — bullish for a rebound. However, technical indicators and market structure remain weak: RSI near 32 and a 30-day DMI downtrend show persistent selling pressure and sidelined large buyers. For traders this implies a bifurcated outcome: short-term range-bound or continued weakness between ~$65K–$70K if selling persists (bearish pressure), but a higher-probability recovery scenario if the on-chain exhaustion signals trigger demand, enabling a reclaim of $70K and a run towards $90K (bullish). Because bullish on-chain signals are tempered by clear technical weakness and uncertain buyer participation, the overall market impact is best classified as neutral — important for traders to manage risk, watch for confirmations (volume, RSI rebound, DMI flip) before positioning, and monitor liquidity around $60K–$70K.