Bitcoin Cycle Now Driven by Politics and Liquidity, Not Just Halvings

10x Research analyst Markus Thielen says Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle remains observable but its primary drivers have shifted from on-chain halvings to macro and political catalysts. Thielen notes market peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021 clustered in Q4 and aligned more closely with U.S. election-related uncertainty and monetary-policy shifts than with precise halving dates. He says the 2024 halving did not trigger a classic risk-asset rally because institutional participation now dominates crypto and institutions remain cautious amid mixed central-bank signals and weaker capital inflows. On-chain data referenced in the later report show roughly a 20% drop in institutional/ETF flows and about a 15% year‑over‑year decline in exchange trading volumes, contributing to a consolidation phase rather than a parabolic breakout. Thielen recommends traders monitor U.S. election developments, fiscal debates and central-bank easing (which would expand liquidity) as likely catalysts for a sustained rally. Counterpoints cited include Arthur Hayes, who attributes cycles to global liquidity and FX dynamics (dollar/yuan) and argues the traditional cycle timing is less relevant; Glassnode and others are quoted as seeing the cycle persist when viewed through liquidity conditions. Key trader takeaways: focus on liquidity metrics, institutional ETF flows, Fed policy and political timelines (especially U.S. elections) when sizing positions and timing entries, since continued low inflows point toward range-bound trading absent renewed macro liquidity.