Analyst: Bitcoin’s Recovery Is a ’Dead Cat Bounce’, $103K Key
Bitcoin has struggled to sustain a recovery after last month’s crash, rising briefly above $107K before dipping below $105K. Senior strategist George Mandres dubs this move a “dead cat bounce,” citing profit-taking by large holders and forced liquidations as ongoing selling catalysts. Market momentum remains muted: futures open interest stands at $68 billion versus October’s $94 billion peak, and funding rates hover near neutral. Technically, Bitcoin trades below its 200-day moving average (~$110K), a threshold for a sustainable uptrend. Despite hopes of a US government reopening lifting risk assets, Bitcoin ETF inflows have stalled. Key support levels to watch are $103K, $86K and $82K (100-week MA). A break below $103K could trigger a drop to $86K, while $82K may offer deeper support.
Bearish
The classification as bearish stems from both technical and sentiment indicators pointing to further downside risk. The term “dead cat bounce” implies the recent lift is temporary and lacks sustained buyer conviction—similar to the short-lived recoveries seen after the March 2020 and May 2021 crashes, which preceded deeper corrections. Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim its 200-day moving average (around $110K) signals that the prevailing downtrend remains intact. Open interest in futures (at $68 billion) and neutral funding rates indicate neither speculative nor institutional flows are sufficiently bullish to drive prices higher. ETF inflows have stalled despite broader risk-on conditions tied to US government reopening hopes, suggesting crypto-specific factors continue to weigh on sentiment. Key support levels at $103K, $86K and $82K serve as potential reaction points; a breach of $103K could accelerate losses toward $86K, while a fall below $86K may test the 100-week MA near $82K. In both short and long term, absence of clear demand zones above ongoing supply resistance makes a bearish bias prudent.