Bitcoin Faces ’Death Cross’ Risk as Weekly Moving Averages Signal Downside
Bitcoin is trading below its 23-week and 50-week moving averages (near $101,870 and $106,528), raising the prospect of a “death cross” that could signal further downside. Current price is around $88,690 (BTC/USDT weekly). Two technical scenarios are outlined: (1) a bullish reversal if Bitcoin reclaims and closes weekly above $101,870–$106,528, which would negate the death-cross narrative and target resistance near $107,155; (2) a bearish path if it remains below that band, with support at $80,600, then $74,111, and a critical test at the 200-week moving average near $67,026 if weekly closes break lower. Macro factors amplify risk: slowing inflows to U.S. spot BTC ETFs and cautious Fed commentary on rate cuts are reducing risk appetite and increasing volatility. Traders should watch weekly closes relative to the 23- and 50-week MAs, $80.6k and $74.1k supports, and ETF flows for short-term positioning and risk management. This article does not provide investment advice.
Bearish
The article highlights that Bitcoin trades below its 23- and 50-week moving averages and may form a death cross — a classical bearish technical signal. Key near-term supports ($80,600 and $74,111) are within reach from current levels (~$88,690), and a weekly close beneath $80.6k would shift focus toward the 200-week MA near $67,026, amplifying downside risk. Concurrent macro headwinds — slowing inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs and cautious Fed commentary on rate cuts — reduce risk appetite and historically correlate with increased crypto downside pressure. In past cycles, loss of long-term moving averages and ETF flow slowdowns have preceded extended corrective phases as leveraged and sentiment-driven positions unwind. Short-term impact: higher volatility, increased probability of downside retests and range-bound trading until weekly closes reverse above the 23/50-week band. Long-term impact: if price reclaims those weekly MAs and ETF flows resume, bearish risk diminishes; if not, structural weakness could invite deeper corrections toward the 200-week MA. Traders should manage risk, use tight stops or hedge, and monitor weekly closes and ETF flows as triggers.