Bitcoin death cross persists as weak July jobs data cuts September rate-hike odds
Bitcoin is trading around $64,938, up on the day, but its technical picture remains bearish: BTC is still compressing below the key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day EMA below the 200-day EMA forming a “death cross.” The U.S. jobs report showed employers cut 23,000 jobs in July versus 95,000 expected, leaving the unemployment rate at 4.1% largely because participation fell.
Markets took the miss as a reason to expect a softer Fed path. CME FedWatch lowered September rate-hike odds to about 40% from 55%, and the dollar weakened while Treasury yields fell—usually supportive for risk assets and crypto. Still, Bitcoin’s chart has not confirmed a reversal: RSI is near-neutral (~54.6), and bulls need a daily close back above the 50-day EMA.
Key levels mentioned: a bull trigger would be reclaiming the 50-day line and then pushing toward the 200-day EMA area (around the $72,000 region cited). A bearish trigger is a break below $60,000, which could reopen the path back toward the July low near $58,000. On a prediction market (Myriad), traders price roughly 65% odds that Bitcoin revisits $55K before any recovery attempt toward $84K.
Bearish
This is a bearish read-through for traders because the macro impulse is supportive (rate-hike odds fall on the jobs miss), but Bitcoin’s market structure hasn’t flipped. Historically, when a weaker jobs print pushes markets toward “less hawkish Fed” expectations, crypto often sees a short-term relief rally. However, this article stresses that BTC remains stuck below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and the 50/200 configuration is still consistent with a medium-term downtrend (“death cross”). That mismatch—macro tailwind without technical confirmation—often leads to choppy action: upside spikes fade until price regains the key moving-average level.
In the short term, the reduced odds of a September hike can create attempts to reclaim $65K/50-day resistance, so risk management should account for headline-driven volatility. In the longer term, the article’s framing suggests the downtrend is not “invalidated” unless BTC can close back above the 50-day EMA and then press toward the 200-day area. Conversely, a daily break below $60K would likely reactivate the prior downtrend mechanics and pull toward the $58K and $55K zones referenced—aligning with the prediction-market skew that recovery is delayed.