Bitcoin Decay Channel Forecasts Peak at $205K–$292K by 2026
Bitcoin prices have retraced over 10% since the $124,457 all-time high on August 14. The Bitcoin Decay Channel, a long-term logarithmic regression model, tracks boom-and-bust patterns and signals that BTC remains below its euphoric peak. Data shared by researcher Sminston With projects the market cycle peak between late 2025 and late 2026. If Bitcoin peaks in December 2025, the model forecasts a $205,000–$230,000 price zone. An extended cycle into 2026 lifts targets to $208,000–$235,000 in January, $219,000–$250,000 in April, $230,000–$265,000 in July, $243,000–$282,000 in October, and up to $250,000–$292,000 by year-end. This implies an 86% gain in a base case and 167% in a bull case. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $110,900, up 2.89% weekly. Coincodex analysts expect a rebound toward $121,276 within five days. The Bitcoin Decay Channel forecast highlights sustained upside potential and helps traders assess market cycle dynamics.
Bullish
The Bitcoin Decay Channel forecast points to substantial upside over the next 12–15 months, with projected peak zones between $205K and $292K. Such detailed long-term price targets typically boost trader confidence and buying interest, as historical Decay Channel signals have coincided with major bull runs. In the short term, the prediction reinforces the ongoing recovery from the recent 10% pullback, encouraging momentum traders to accumulate on dips. Over the long term, a forecasted 86% to 167% gain supports bullish positioning and portfolio rebalancing toward Bitcoin, potentially attracting fresh capital inflows and sustaining upward pressure on market prices.