Bitcoin ETF money dey increase, but spot demand still dey shrink
CryptoQuant dey talk say Bitcoin ETF buying and some institutional accumulation still dey continue, but Bitcoin spot demand dey for deep contraction. Even though March near-30-day ETF purchases climb reach about 50,000 BTC (highest since Oct 2025) and Strategy add about 44,000 BTC, CryptoQuant report say the 30-day apparent demand end March around −63,000 BTC, meaning distribution still dey.
On-chain data show supply overhang. Big holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) turn net sellers, with holdings down about 188,000 BTC over the past year. The 365-day SMA still trend down, suggesting this distribution dey structural. Medium “whales” (dolphins) still dey net accumulators, but their one-year accumulation slow to about 429,000 BTC. US demand also weak again as the Coinbase Premium turn negative after Bitcoin early-October peak.
For traders, CryptoQuant paint say possible short-term relief rally fit happen if macro risk calm—especially if US–Iran tensions de-escalate. Upside levels mentioned na $71,500–$81,200, but dem also dey act as key bearish pressure/resistance zones. Without macro catalyst, weak spot demand and ongoing whale distribution keep upside capped for sustained trend moves.
Bearish
ETF and Strategy accumulation no dey turn to stronger Bitcoin spot demand. CryptoQuant key indicator—30-day apparent demand—still end for March around -63,000 BTC, meaning distribution pass spot buying. Whale behaviour dey confirm am: big holders turn net sellers with one-year holding drop (~188,000 BTC), and the 365-day SMA still dey down, show structural supply pressure. Even though short-term relief rally fit happen to $71,500–$81,200 if macro risk calm down (e.g., U.S.-Iran de-escalation), those levels dey framed as bearish resistance zones, so upside likely go face repeated supply. Long-term follow-through no likely without sustained return of U.S. demand (Coinbase Premium still negative) and a reversal in spot demand contraction.