Glassnode: Derivatives Pressure Eases as Bitcoin Price Structure Turns Positive
Glassnode co-founder Negentropic said Bitcoin’s price action has turned constructive as buy-side demand appears on pullbacks and recent lows hold. A major shift is the dissipation of derivatives-driven pressure after the largest-ever Bitcoin options expiry (~$23.6 billion notional). In prior weeks, hedging flows mechanically capped rallies; with those flows fading, price discovery is less constrained and current trends favor further upside. On macro fundamentals, US M2 money supply expanded 4.3% year-on-year in November to a record $22.23 trillion — the 21st consecutive month of growth and about $40 billion above 2022 peaks. Real (inflation-adjusted) M2 rose 1.5% YoY for the 15th month, indicating ongoing liquidity expansion and continued fiat depreciation. Key takeaways for traders: reduced hedging/friction from derivatives may allow more price-driven moves, pullbacks find buyers, and persistent monetary expansion remains a bullish macro backdrop for BTC.
Bullish
The report signals a constructive shift: the largest Bitcoin options expiry (~$23.6bn) removed a significant source of hedging-driven selling that had mechanically capped rallies. With derivatives pressure dissipating, price discovery can reassert itself, allowing trend-driven upside rather than hedging-dominated, range-bound moves. Additionally, persistent expansion in US M2 (4.3% YoY, record $22.23T) and positive real M2 growth (1.5% YoY) sustain a liquidity-rich macro backdrop that historically supports risk assets like BTC. Short-term implications: reduced options/hedge flow could increase volatility but favor upside continuation; traders should watch open interest, funding rates, and liquidation clusters for entry/exit signals. Long-term implications: continued monetary expansion and diminished derivatives crowding lower the tail risk from forced deleveraging, supporting a bullish structural thesis. Similar past events: after large expiries and derisking phases (e.g., post-2021/2022 option expiries), BTC has often resumed directional moves once hedging flows abated. Risks remain — macro shocks, policy shifts, or a return of concentrated derivatives positioning could reverse the outlook — so position sizing and monitoring of derivatives metrics are advised.