Bitcoin dips below $63K as ETF outflows and Strait of Hormuz risks curb upside
Bitcoin is trading slightly lower after rebounding more than 6% last week, but it has slipped below $63K and remains stuck under the $64,000 resistance area. The key driver is continued institutional selling via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. CoinGlass data show $526.64 million in net outflows over the prior week, extending an eight-week consecutive withdrawal streak.
At the same time, renewed geopolitical risk is weighing on risk appetite. Concerns tied to the Strait of Hormuz resurfaced after reports that Iran may introduce new service fees for vessels using the strategically important shipping route. Traders are therefore more cautious about high-beta exposure like Bitcoin.
Technically, Bitcoin is still above the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $62,867, which bulls view as long-term support. A sustained hold above this level keeps the recovery intact, with a potential upside target near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at about $65,520. However, the daily trend remains heavy: Bitcoin is below key moving averages (50-day EMA near $65,744, 100-day EMA near $69,455, and 200-day EMA near $75,471). Immediate resistance sits around $64,004.
Momentum signals are mixed. Daily RSI is near 49, and a MACD crossover suggests buyers are gradually regaining strength, but confirmation of a sustained uptrend is still missing. If Bitcoin loses the $62,867 area, the recovery could weaken further, exposing deeper support near the long-term ascending trendline around $58,000 and the yearly low near $57,800.
Bearish
The headline risk for traders is sustained negative ETF flow. When U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs post consecutive weekly outflows (here: $526.64M, eighth straight week), it often translates into reduced spot bid and forces price to rely more on retail or shorter-term traders—making breakouts harder to sustain. Similar ETF outflow streaks in past cycles have frequently coincided with “range trading” and failed rallies until flows stabilize.
Geopolitical risk adds a second layer of pressure by damping overall risk appetite. Renewed concerns around the Strait of Hormuz can pressure broader risk assets, which typically increases caution and reduces willingness to buy BTC dips.
Technically, the market is not fully bearish yet because Bitcoin remains above the 200-week SMA (~$62,867). That means the longer-term recovery is still intact, but the fact that BTC is below the 50/100/200-day EMAs suggests the intermediate trend remains weak. For short-term traders, failure to reclaim $64,004—and then $65,744—raises the probability of further consolidation or a pullback toward ~$58,000 and ~$57,800. Longer term, if ETF outflows continue, rallies may remain vulnerable; if outflows slow while BTC holds the 200-week SMA, the bias can improve toward a renewed uptrend.