Bitcoin Dips to Q1 2025 Lows; Fed Outlook May Spark Rally

Published: 2025-11-13 08:03:05 |

Bitcoin fell back to around $105k after rejecting gains near $107.5k on Nov 11, driven by a broader crypto market sell-off and tech-sector declines amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. The crypto market’s sentiment gauge remains in “extreme fear” levels similar to Q1 2025, when prices bottomed. Leading altcoins like BNB and SOL also slid to under $1,000 and $160 respectively. QCP Capital highlights that the looming end of the U.S. government shutdown removes near-term risk, but Fed caution ahead of its Dec. 9–10 FOMC meeting remains a key factor. Markets currently assign a 63% probability to a 25bps rate cut, with private data pointing to softer labor conditions. QCP projects that a Fed easing and resilient corporate earnings could support a year-end rally in BTC, while ETH would need to break above $3,700 (and ultimately $3,900) to confirm recovery momentum.

Neutral

While the recent pullback to Q1 2025 lows underscores prevailing bearish pressure driven by tech-sector declines and macroeconomic uncertainty, looming Fed rate-cut prospects and potential year-end catalysts offer a counterbalance. QCP Capital’s forecast of easing monetary policy and resilient corporate earnings suggests a possible rally in BTC and broad risk assets if major technical levels are reclaimed. Historical parallels from Q1 2025 show similar fear-driven bottoms preceding rebounds. Therefore, the immediate impact appears mixed, with short-term volatility likely to continue even as underlying factors could support a medium- to long-term recovery.