Bitcoin distribution ‘slowing’ after $22B realized losses; miner stress and put demand persist
VanEck analysis shows Bitcoin (BTC) holders in the 1–2 year cohort — who bought near an average price of $72,000 — were the largest sellers in late 2025 and early 2026 but have sharply reduced sales after recent drawdowns. BTC has consolidated above $65,000 for over a week following a 46% drop from $126,000 to $60,000 over three months. Realized losses have surpassed $22 billion, indicating significant capitulation. Miner revenue has fallen and the network hash rate declined about 14% over the past 90 days, a contraction that historically has sometimes preceded strong 90-day forward returns. Options positioning shows elevated put skew and flows biased toward downside hedging, signaling market caution despite improved prospects for regulatory clarity via the CLARITY Act. VanEck suggests slowing distribution could allow BTC to stabilize and potentially recover in Q2, but warns investors still face painful losses and that miner distress may persist.
Neutral
The net effect is neutral because the report contains both bearish and bullish signals. Bearish: realized losses exceeding $22B, heavy past selling from 1–2 year holders, reduced miner revenue and a 14% 90-day hash rate decline, plus elevated put skew in options — all point to ongoing downside risk and market caution. Bullish/relief: selling from key cohorts has slowed, reducing immediate distribution pressure; historically, hash rate contractions have at times been followed by strong 90-day returns, and improving odds of regulatory clarity (the CLARITY Act) could support price stabilization and inflows. For short-term trading, elevated put demand and miner distress suggest volatility and downside protection strategies may remain prudent. For medium-term outlook (weeks to a quarter), slower distribution and a potential catalyst from regulatory progress could allow consolidation and a recovery if selling pressure remains subdued. Long-term fundamentals are mixed: miner exits could tighten supply if uncompetitive miners leave, but continued capitulation and weak conviction keep risk elevated. Similar past episodes (e.g., post-hashrate drawdowns and capitulation phases) have produced short-term rebounds followed by renewed volatility; traders should watch on-chain cohort selling, realized losses, hash rate recovery, and options skew for directional conviction.