Bitcoin’s Dollar Rally Strong but Lags Tech Stocks & Gold
Bitcoin has delivered over 600% gains from cycle lows with a notably stable price structure, featuring shallower retracements (around 32%) compared to previous cycles’ 50%+ drawdowns. Despite this strong USD performance, ratio analyses reveal underperformance relative to major assets. Against the NASDAQ, Bitcoin has only just surpassed its 2021 peak, suggesting limited outperformance versus high-growth tech stocks. In gold terms, BTC remains below its prior cycle high, meaning holders since 2021 would have out-earned gold bullion. When adjusting for global M2 money supply expansion, Bitcoin’s liquidity-adjusted purchasing power still trails its 2021 peak. These comparisons indicate that much of the rally may stem from fiat debasement rather than pure asset strength. Traders should monitor BTC/asset and liquidity-adjusted ratio charts for clearer signals on potential breakout or resistance levels.
Neutral
The analysis points to mixed signals: Bitcoin’s strong USD gains and lower volatility suggest stable bullish momentum, yet its underperformance vs tech stocks, gold, and liquidity-adjusted metrics temper that optimism. Historically, similar ratio floors preceded late-cycle rallies or consolidation phases rather than decisive breakouts. Traders may see limited short-term upside until BTC overcomes relative resistance levels, while long-term holders could still benefit if structural drivers like ETF inflows persist. Overall, the blend of positive fundamentals and relative weakness yields a neutral market outlook.