Fidelity: Bitcoin Ancient Supply Growth Outpaces New Issuance, Signaling Heightened Scarcity and Bullish Price Potential
Recent reports by Fidelity Digital Assets reveal a significant development in Bitcoin’s supply dynamics: the volume of Bitcoin that has remained unmoved for over ten years, known as ’ancient supply,’ is now increasing faster than the amount of new Bitcoin issued through mining. As of early June 2025, over 566 BTC per day is entering this ancient supply category, surpassing the 450 BTC mined daily post the April 2024 halving. More than 3.4 million BTC (about 17% of total supply) has not moved in a decade, and this trend could see ancient supply hit 30% of all circulating BTC by 2035 if it continues. The accumulation of Bitcoin by public companies—now holding more than 800,000 BTC—further limits available exchange supply. This sustained supply restriction highlights increasing scarcity and could drive upward price pressure, especially if institutional demand, spot Bitcoin ETF launches, and macroeconomic factors continue to support investment. Although ancient supply growth signals bullish potential for Bitcoin, ongoing market volatility and changes in long-term holder behavior could still trigger price movements. Crypto traders should closely monitor these supply-side trends, as shifts in long-term holder activity and institutional accumulation remain key drivers for Bitcoin market strategies and volatility.
Bullish
The rapid growth in Bitcoin’s ancient supply, outpacing daily new issuance, signals that long-term holders are increasingly removing coins from circulation. This reduces the available liquid supply, especially as institutional accumulation grows and more companies hold substantial BTC reserves. Historically, such supply constraints have supported upward price movements, particularly when coupled with strong demand, new investment products like spot ETFs, and macroeconomic volatility that drives capital into hedges like Bitcoin. While short-term volatility may still arise due to holder behavior changes, the overall tightening of supply is likely to create bullish pressures, benefiting traders who monitor these dynamics closely.