Bitcoin Faces Downside Risk Ahead of Fed Decision
Bitcoin climbed from below $79,500 to $81,700 in the 24 hours before the Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision, but analyst Ali Martinez warned that the move could reverse. He said Bitcoin has often moved less than 1% in the first hour after past FOMC decisions, with a clearer trend emerging over the following 24 hours.
Martinez cited several bearish signals: large holders reportedly reduced their balances by more than 8,160 BTC in 24 hours, worth about $664 million, while whales had taken more than $150 million in profits over several days. The Coinbase Premium Index also fell to a monthly low of -0.17, suggesting weak US buying pressure.
Bitcoin is trading above support near $81,000. A decisive break below it could expose prices to $77,000 or, in a deeper decline, $67,000. On the upside, a move above $84,500 would weaken the bearish outlook and could open a path towards $92,000 and $104,000.
Markets generally expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged. However, Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks may influence Bitcoin’s direction, particularly amid persistent inflation and speculation about a possible rate hike later in the year. Traders will be watching the Fed decision, price levels and follow-through in buying or selling activity.
Bearish
The immediate market bias is bearish because the article highlights potential selling pressure ahead of a major macro event: reported whale profit-taking, a decline of more than 8,160 BTC in large-holder balances, and a negative Coinbase Premium Index. Together, these indicators suggest weaker demand, particularly from US investors, while Bitcoin is trading close to the cited $81,000 support level. A break below that area could trigger stop-losses and momentum selling, with $77,000 and $67,000 identified as possible downside levels.
The FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh’s remarks are key short-term catalysts. Even if rates remain unchanged as expected, guidance on inflation and future policy could move risk assets. Past FOMC events have sometimes produced a muted initial Bitcoin reaction followed by a clearer move over the next day, so traders may see volatility continue after the announcement rather than immediately settle. A break above $84,500 would undermine the bearish setup and could encourage short covering or renewed buying, with $92,000 and $104,000 cited as higher levels.
This is a conditional, event-driven outlook rather than confirmation of a market-wide decline. In the longer term, Bitcoin’s direction will depend on actual Fed policy, inflation, liquidity and whether large-holder selling continues. The reported figures and analyst’s price scenarios are not guarantees; traders should account for sharp reversals and elevated volatility around the decision.