Bitcoin Drops Toward Historic Capitulation Zone as Drawdown Nears 46%
Bitcoin has weakened below the $70,000 area as a sustained sell-off since November 2025 accelerated in early February, pushing the cycle drawdown to roughly 46% from the October 2025 peak near $124,450. Analyst Axel Adler highlights that BTC is approaching the 1.25× Realized Price Band — a historically meaningful boundary that often precedes capitulation. Price action shows BTC trading under the 50-, 100- and 200-period moving averages, with the $65K zone identified as critical support; a break below it would expose demand nearer the low-$60K range. Rapid volume spikes during the recent drop indicate forced selling and liquidations, which can mark either capitulation or the start of further decline if selling continues. Adler notes that sustained movement deeper than −50% would reopen targets toward −60% to −70% seen in past cycles, while stabilization between −40% and −50% could signal moderating volatility and the start of accumulation. Key takeaways for traders: watch the 1.25× Realized Price Band, monitor support at $65K and low-$60Ks, follow on‑chain liquidation and volume signals, and consider risk management for increased volatility.
Bearish
The article documents accelerated downside momentum, larger drawdown (≈46%), and technical deterioration (BTC trading below 50/100/200-period MAs), which collectively point to bearish market conditions. Approaching the 1.25× Realized Price Band is historically associated with higher sensitivity to liquidity shocks and potential capitulation; combined with volume spikes from likely liquidations, the risk of further downside is elevated. Short-term, traders should expect heightened volatility, spot liquidation cascades, and the potential test of low-$60K demand zones if $65K fails. Medium-to-long term, outcomes hinge on whether price capitulates below the realized-price band (raising the probability of deeper corrections toward −60%–−70% seen in past cycles) or stabilizes between −40% and −50% (which historically precedes consolidation and later accumulation). Therefore the immediate bias is bearish until clear stabilization and sustained reclaim of key moving averages and support levels occur.