BTC Drawdown Near 300 Days as Q1 2026 Options Expiry Risks Volatility

Bitcoin (BTC) drawdowns are persisting, and cycle analysis in the article estimates recovery could take nearly 300 days. The framework cited suggests that when BTC falls another 10% from a given trough, historical recovery time often extends by roughly 80 days. Near-term risk is heightened by derivatives settlement. For Q1 2026, the article flags that settlement activity could cover about 40% of open interest tied to Bitcoin options. It also points to a “max pain” zone near $75,000, where hedging and repositioning flows tend to cluster around expiry, typically lifting short-term volatility. Institutional positioning appears to be getting more cautious. The article says firms are trimming near-dated exposure and shifting toward out-of-the-money call options for later expiries in June and September 2026, implying less aggressive near-term upside bets. Corporate data: Marathon Digital sold 15,133 BTC at an average ~$65,300 to retire about $1B in convertible debt. The sale reflects a cost basis near ~$80,900, implying a realized loss of roughly $236M, partially offset by repurchasing convertible bonds at a 9% discount (about $88M saved). Net impact was described as an approximately $148M loss. For traders, the BTC setup blends slower drawdown healing with options-expiry-driven order flow, which can keep the tape choppy even if a longer-duration base forms.