Bitcoin slides to $62K as Hayes dumps HYPE/NEAR; Kalshi expands CFTC trading
A broad crypto selloff hit the market as Bitcoin dropped ~6% to about $62,600, pulling risk sentiment lower across majors and high-beta alts. Ethereum fell ~6% to ~$1,750, Solana slid ~9% to ~$68.40, and Hyperliquid (HYPE) retreated ~9% to ~$65.7. Alt-season favorites also sold off sharply: ZEC -12%, NEAR -18%, and VVV -12% after brief local highs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded eleven straight sessions of outflows, totaling roughly $1.4B this week, while price pressure intensified as Bitcoin approaches cycle support near $60,000. Traders also highlighted Arthur Hayes’ move: he said he fully liquidated his HYPE and NEAR positions, arguing a macro top is forming. Hayes cited (1) rising energy costs linked to the Iran conflict and inventory restocking, (2) three major AI IPOs queued into early Q3, and (3) a potential political shift against AI into autumn—catalysts that reportedly accelerated the deleveraging in the same alt names that led the prior rally.
On the market-structure side, moomoo expanded event-driven trading via a partnership with Kalshi, offering CFTC-regulated contracts tied to Fed decisions, inflation prints, elections, and the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Implied-probability contracts priced around $0.01–$1, with combined monthly volume across Kalshi and Polymarket rising from < $5B (Sep 2025) to ~ $24B (Apr 2026).
Regulatory risk also increased: Rep. Bryan Steil said he will seek to extend a ban on lawmakers, spouses, and dependents trading publicly traded equities to prediction markets like Kalshi/Polymarket, with penalties up to $2,000 or 10% of position value.
Separately, sanctions and enforcement pressure continued via stablecoin and tokenized-gold scrutiny, reinforcing a broader “risk-off + tightening” narrative around Bitcoin.
Bearish
Bearish call: Bitcoin is already testing key cycle support (~$60k) while ETF outflows persist (11 straight sessions, ~$1.4B), which historically reduces marginal demand and can extend downside during risk-off tape. Hayes’ full liquidation of HYPE and NEAR signals reputational and positioning risk in high-beta altcoins; similar “macro top” calls during prior leverage unwind phases often coincide with sharper, multi-day de-risking rather than a quick bounce.
In the short term, the combination of Bitcoin weakness, ongoing ETF selling pressure, and alt deleveraging (HYPE/NEAR leading casualties) increases the probability of volatility and further downside retests. In the medium term, prediction-market expansion via Kalshi/moomoo is not directly bullish for crypto prices, but the concurrent push to bring prediction markets under insider-trading/market-abuse frameworks raises regulatory overhang—typically a headwind for speculative activity.
Longer term, the article’s “enforcement + deleveraging” theme (stablecoin sanctions pressure, tokenized-gold scrutiny) suggests markets may continue rotating toward more liquid, compliant exposures. Unless Bitcoin ETF flows stabilize and price reclaims lost levels, the path of least resistance remains downward/sideways rather than a clean trend reversal.