Bitcoin drops below $64,000 as oil rises and spot ETF outflows hit
Bitcoin is trading below $64,000, pressured by rising oil prices and softer demand for risk assets amid stalled US-Iran negotiations. Geopolitical uncertainty is also feeding renewed inflation concerns, which supports expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike.
On the institutional side, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $144.67M in net outflows on Monday, ending a five-day inflow streak. While this does not guarantee a longer trend, additional withdrawals could deepen the correction and weaken sentiment.
Technically, Bitcoin remains under key moving averages: the 50-day EMA at $64,625 is nearby resistance, followed by the 100-day EMA at $66,795 and the 200-day EMA at $72,045. Momentum indicators are mixed to bearish, with the RSI around 48 (slightly below neutral) and MACD hovering near its signal line.
Near-term levels to watch: support is around $62,345. A decisive daily close below that level could raise the odds of a deeper selloff toward the yearly low near $57,800. For bulls, reclaiming the 50-day EMA would be the first step toward improving Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.
Bearish
Bearish. The article ties Bitcoin’s weakness to three reinforcing factors: (1) macro pressure from an oil-driven inflation scare, (2) geopolitical uncertainty around the US-Iran standoff, and (3) weakening institutional demand signaled by US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows ($144.67M on Monday). In similar past episodes, ETF outflows combined with hawkish rate expectations have often capped rallies and extended corrections until either ETF flow stabilizes or macro risk eases.
Short-term, the setup looks constrained because Bitcoin is still below the 50-day EMA ($64,625) with nearby resistance overhead and momentum not showing a clear bullish reversal. If price action fails to defend $62,345 on a daily close, a move toward the yearly low near $57,800 becomes more plausible.
Long-term, the key variable is whether ETF outflows persist and whether inflation/rate expectations cool. If ETF flows flip back to net inflows and macro data reduces the probability of further hikes, Bitcoin could recover and retest higher resistance levels (100-day and 200-day EMAs). For now, the balance of evidence favors downside risk over a sustained bullish reversal.