Bitcoin Under Pressure as Inflation and Outflows Weigh

| coinjar.com
Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 after US inflation exceeded expectations, renewing concerns about interest rates and triggering heavy crypto liquidations. Reports put 24-hour liquidations at between $929 million and $948 million, with most forced selling coming from long positions. Bitcoin later recovered towards $82,000 as traders reduced expectations of an October rate hike, but volatility remained high. The market faced further pressure from fund flows: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $228 million in weekly net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs saw $320.1 million in outflows. Bitcoin also traded below the estimated $82,300 average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETF holders. Analysts flagged $80,286 as near-term support, with $78,002 and $75,092 below it; resistance and recovery levels include $81,603, $84,245 and, in a broader trading range, $86,500. Beyond prices, proposed MSCI rules could affect Bitcoin treasury firms such as Strategy and Metaplanet, with any index removals potentially prompting fund selling. Separately, companies objected to tokenised stock plans. Persistent inflation, ETF outflows and uncertainty around Bitcoin-related firms leave Bitcoin sentiment fragile; sustained ETF inflows and a less restrictive Federal Reserve outlook could help support a recovery.
Bearish
The overall near-term signal for Bitcoin is bearish. Hotter-than-expected inflation has revived concern that interest rates may remain restrictive, a backdrop that can support bond yields and the US dollar while reducing demand for risk assets. The sharp liquidation of leveraged long positions adds to immediate selling pressure and can amplify volatility, especially around the $80,000 level. Bitcoin’s recovery towards $82,000 and reduced expectations of an October rate hike offer some counterweight, but weekly outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest that institutional demand was not strong enough to confirm a durable rebound. Traders are likely to watch whether Bitcoin can hold the $80,286 support area and reclaim levels around the ETF-holder cost basis near $82,300. A sustained break lower could bring the cited supports near $78,002 and $75,092 into focus; recovery above nearby resistance would improve short-term sentiment. Over the longer term, persistent ETF outflows, restrictive monetary policy and possible index-related selling of Bitcoin treasury firms could weigh on confidence and liquidity. These risks are not conclusive: consistent ETF inflows, easing long-term-holder selling and a softer Federal Reserve outlook could help stabilise Bitcoin and support a recovery.