Bitcoin-DXY inverse spike (-0.90) stalls rally; ETH lags
Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has deepened to -0.90, the most negative reading since 2022, meaning BTC is increasingly trading in near-perfect opposition to the dollar. The correlation squared at 0.81 suggests about 81% of Bitcoin’s short-term moves are statistically linked to DXY.
After BTC topped $79,000, its rally stalled as DXY rebounded to 98.75 from 97.63 on April 17. Analysts point to broader macro headwinds: rising oil prices tied to risks around the Strait of Hormuz and continued U.S.-Iran tensions are keeping inflation and risk premia elevated, which can weigh on risk assets.
Despite sustained inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, major investors remain cautious. SkyBridge’s Anthony Scaramucci said a more meaningful Bitcoin recovery may not arrive until October or November, and noted that whales and long-term holders have continued selling into ETF-driven demand.
On crypto market internals, the ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio fell nearly 3% to 0.02965, its lowest since March 15. The article flags two bearish technical effects: a downside break from a short-term ascending channel and a move back below the larger downtrend line—implying continued underperformance of ether versus Bitcoin.
Bearish
This news links Bitcoin’s near-term direction tightly to DXY via an extreme inverse correlation (-0.90) and reinforces that Bitcoin’s rally has already stalled after the $79,000 area. When dollar rebounds, BTC has recently tended to weaken, and the piece adds macro drivers (oil/Strait of Hormuz risk, US-Iran tensions) that typically keep inflation and risk premia elevated—conditions that often pressure crypto beta in the short term.
ETF inflows are a support, but the article highlights supply friction: whales/long-term holders selling into ETF demand. That mix often leads to choppy price action rather than a clean breakout.
Finally, the ETH/BTC breakdown (to 0.02965) suggests rotation away from ether into Bitcoin—or simply stronger relative demand for BTC. Historically, underperformance in ETH vs BTC during macro-dollar strength regimes has preceded broader “risk-on/risk-off” swings where traders reduce alt exposure.
Short-term: watch DXY swings closely; another dollar upswing could keep BTC capped and sustain volatility. Long-term: if macro risks ease and ETF flows accelerate without net sell pressure from large holders, the correlation may eventually loosen and allow a renewed leg—yet the cited Scaramucci timing (later in the year) implies buyers may not regain control immediately.