Bitcoin Faces Election Volatility as Traders Watch Key Support

Bitcoin is trading near $78,299 after losing 7.3% in October, with US midterm elections and economic data adding uncertainty. A Bloomberg survey put median year-end Bitcoin forecasts at $90,800 if Republicans retain both chambers of Congress, $84,100 under a split Congress and $76,450 if Democrats take both chambers. TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg said a Democratic sweep could hinder crypto legislation, including the stalled CLARITY Act; a Republican hold may be more favourable but would not ensure progress. The bill received 50 Senate votes in favour and 49 against, short of the 60 needed to advance. The crypto industry has spent more than $206 million on the 2026 election, according to Public Citizen. Traders are tracking nearby price levels. QCP sees support at $76,000–$76,600 and resistance at $79,500–$80,500. A sustained break below support could put the 50-week moving average near $75,700 and the 200-day average near $73,100 in focus. Earlier levels identified support near $77,000 and resistance at $79,100, with $75,000 and then $72,000 as downside areas. Trader Doctor Profit said two to three daily closes below $76,000 could signal weakening market structure and expose Bitcoin to a fall toward $67,000–$69,000. Analyst Ali Martinez has also warned of a possible 30% correction, which could bring $57,000 into view. Election risk may increase short-term Bitcoin volatility, but analysts caution that political outcomes alone may not drive prices. Bitwise researchers found no statistically significant link between election odds and major crypto performance, citing financial conditions, inflation and AI-related risks as potentially more important factors. Bitcoin fell ahead of each of the four previous midterm elections, but historical data also show an average gain of 53.7% in the 12 months after past midterms. The limited sample and influence of halving cycles make that history an uncertain guide for traders.