Analyst Sees Bitcoin Wave III Pushing Price Toward $200K
Analysts predict Bitcoin may begin a Wave III expansion, potentially driving price to $200,000–$240,000. According to market expert Gert Van Lagen, BTC rebounded from its 40-week SMA, signaling the end of corrective Wave II. Using an Elliott Wave model, Van Lagen notes previous parabolic rallies in 2019 and 2023 followed similar patterns.
Crypto trader Jelle highlights resistance near the long-term ascending channel midpoint. A breakout above this level could open upside toward $350,000.
Macroeconomic factors may add fuel. Researcher Sminston With points to a prolonged US PMI slump, suggesting an upcoming economic rebound could trigger a risk-on shift. This, in turn, could attract investors to high-growth assets like Bitcoin.
On-chain data shows Bitcoin filled the CME gap around $100,000 and is retesting $105,000. Futures open interest and average order sizes have declined, reflecting reduced whale activity. However, clusters of long liquidations near key levels have preceded recoveries, indicating a potential bullish pivot. Continued upside above $105,000 would support the bullish narrative and strengthen Bitcoin’s parabolic trend.
Bullish
Bitcoin’s potential Wave III expansion aligns with historical parabolic rallies in 2019 and 2023, reinforcing bullish momentum. The recent rebound from the 40-week SMA and CME gap fill around $100,000 suggest strong technical support. Decreased futures open interest and reduced whale order sizes indicate consolidation before the next leg up. Macro factors, including an anticipated US economic rebound after prolonged PMI weakness, could drive risk-on sentiment and inflows into high-risk assets like Bitcoin. On-chain liquidation clusters preceding minor recoveries further support a bullish pivot above $105,000. Short-term price action near key levels may offer entry points, while the long-term trend remains parabolic, favoring higher targets toward $200K–$240K.