Bitcoin Price Catalysts: Analyst Targets $90,000–$96,000 as Elliott Waves Play Out
A crypto analyst on X, “Rawl,” published a Bitcoin price roadmap that projects a rebound to the $90,000–$96,000 area after recent pullbacks in the bear market.
The analysis says Bitcoin price action has followed an Elliott Wave plan: after a crash to ~$60,000 in February and subsequent Wave 4 and Wave 5 completion, BTC has started a new bullish phase. Rawl claims BTC has already printed Wave 1 and Wave 2, and is now trading around a choppy mid-range near $65,000 (reported trading level: $67,104).
Key upside path: once the next two waves complete, Bitcoin price could jump toward $90,000–$96,000, then likely move sideways for weeks. A subsequent decline is framed as a bullish corrective ABC wave, possibly around the time a new Federal Reserve chair replaces Jerome Powell, with the correction potentially lasting until the June FOMC meeting.
Downside alternative: Bitcoin price could dip further toward ~$71,000–$74,000 for the next Wave 2, or in a less likely scenario fall below $74,000 toward $55,000 between May and June.
Risk management: the analyst recommends taking 20%–30% profits near $90,000 and scaling back in—10%–15% if BTC revisits $74,000, and the rest if it falls toward $55,000 by June or by Q1 2027. The analyst also claims an 80% chance Bitcoin sets a new all-time high this year.
Crypto-trader takeaway: this is primarily a technical (Elliott Wave) scenario tied to macro timing (FOMC/Jerome Powell transition), which could influence both momentum trades and event-driven hedging around June.
Bullish
The article is built around a bullish Bitcoin price roadmap based on Elliott Wave structure. It argues that BTC already completed a prior corrective phase (Wave 4/Wave 5) after the February drop, and that a new upside cycle is underway with Wave 1 and Wave 2 printed. If the next waves progress as expected, the path to $90,000–$96,000 is a momentum-friendly setup.
However, the same roadmap also explicitly includes a downside “event risk” window: a further dip toward ~$71,000–$74,000, or a lower-probability plunge toward ~$55,000 tied to May–June and macro developments (June FOMC, and the Fed chair transition from Jerome Powell). This mirrors how prior market cycles often behave around major macro decision points—traders typically front-run the base case, then hedge or reduce risk as the event date nears.
Short-term impact: moderately bullish bias, especially for traders looking for a relief rally toward $90k, but with clear incentives to manage entries and take partial profits because the forecast includes choppy conditions around $65k and potential pullbacks.
Long-term impact: if BTC reaches the $90,000 area and successfully turns from a corrective ABC phase, it would align with the article’s claim of a high likelihood of a new all-time high later this year—supportive for dip-buyers. If BTC fails and breaks down toward $74k/$55k, it would likely trigger “risk-off” positioning and invalidate the immediate wave structure, shifting flows away from long momentum trades.