Bitcoin ETFs Suffer $348M Outflow as BTC Closes 2025 Lower
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $348 million in net outflows on December 31, 2025, across 12 funds as Bitcoin closed the year at $87,496, down about 6% from the 2024 year-end price. Ethereum ETFs saw $72.06 million in outflows across nine funds, while Solana (SOL) and XRP posted modest ETF gains of $2.29 million and $5.58 million respectively. The year-end selling coincided with a $74.6 billion one-day usage of the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility, the largest since COVID-19, which market participants described as seasonal funding management rather than emergency QE. Analysts remain divided: Charles Schwab strategist Michael Townsend cited easing policy and weaker Treasury demand as bullish catalysts for 2026, while on-chain and ETF-flow metrics (Glassnode) showed negative 30-day SMA for BTC and ETH and retail demand weakness. CryptoQuant outlined three 2026 scenarios, favoring a “twisted range” between $80,000–$140,000 as most likely; alternative scenarios include a recession-driven drop toward $50,000 or a risk-on rally to $120,000–$170,000. Institutional milestones in 2025 included Vanguard permitting trading of crypto ETFs and CFTC approvals for spot crypto ETFs on registered futures exchanges. Market commentators offered mixed views on timing and depth of any recovery, with some forecasting a potential bottom near $60,000 ahead of later-cycle recoveries.
Neutral
The immediate data — $348M BTC ETF outflows and BTC down ~6% year-over-year — is bearish in the short term because outflows and negative ETF 30-day SMAs indicate weak demand and selling pressure. However, offsetting factors make the overall market impact neutral rather than outright bearish: large one-day Fed repo usage signalled liquidity management (not emergency QE) and analysts point to potential easing and weaker Treasury demand that could be bullish for risk assets in 2026. Historical precedents show that year-end/seasonal rebalancing and funding flows often produce temporary outflows followed by recoveries once macro signals clarify. Expected short-term impact: elevated volatility, possible continuation of downside or range-bound action near $80k–$90k as ETF flows and retail demand remain thin. Medium-to-long-term impact: if Fed policy loosens and institutional access (Vanguard, CFTC approvals) continues to broaden, BTC could benefit and resume structural inflows; conversely, recession-driven deleveraging or prolonged weak ETF demand could push prices lower toward scenarios like $50k–$60k. For traders: prioritize liquidity management, use tight risk controls around earnings/repo windows and Fed announcements, watch ETF flow data and 30-day SMAs, and monitor macro cues (Treasury demand, Fed guidance) to time entries — tactical neutral bias with event-driven opportunities for both shorts and dip-buying.