Bitcoin ETF Hedging Could Fuel Rally Against Gold
Bitcoin may have more upside than gold if Bitcoin ETF hedging demand declines, according to a JPMorgan report. Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is near its 2026 high, while positioning in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is less defensive. IBIT also has a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD, signalling stronger bearish protection around Bitcoin.
Bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half of their earlier 2026 outflows, compared with a full recovery for gold ETFs. JPMorgan argues that this heavier hedging could become a bullish contrarian signal. If sentiment improves, short covering and reduced downside protection could support Bitcoin relative to gold.
Bitcoin was trading near $78,100 after rising more than 2% and moving back above its 200-day moving average, near $73,200. The key technical level is $82,300, which has rejected BTC twice. A daily close above it could indicate that hedging is unwinding and open a path towards $98,300. Failure to break higher could leave Bitcoin ranging between $70,000 and $82,000 through the end of 2026. Traders should monitor ETF flows, IBIT short interest, bond yields and Federal Reserve policy.
Bullish
The news is conditionally bullish for Bitcoin because it identifies a potential short-covering catalyst rather than confirming immediate fundamental demand. Elevated IBIT short interest and a high put-to-call ratio suggest that investors remain heavily positioned for downside. If Bitcoin holds its 200-day moving average near $73,200 and breaks the $82,300 resistance level, traders may unwind hedges, creating additional buying pressure and potentially targeting $98,300.
In the short term, the setup could increase volatility. ETF flow data, Federal Reserve policy, real yields and developments surrounding US crypto legislation remain important risks. A failure at $82,300 could instead preserve the $70,000-$82,000 range, while a loss of the 200-day average would weaken the bullish case.
Historically, crowded short positioning can amplify rallies when sentiment reverses, as seen during prior crypto short squeezes. However, positioning alone does not guarantee a sustained trend. Gold has shown stronger ETF flow recovery, and continued high bond yields or hawkish monetary policy could keep demand for Bitcoin subdued. The longer-term outlook therefore depends on whether ETF hedging genuinely fades and spot demand improves.