Bitcoin ETF Inflows Signal Resilience as Geopolitical Oil Risks Loom

Bitcoin is showing signs of resilience as geopolitical uncertainty and higher oil prices threaten broader markets. K33 analysts say sell pressure is easing and the market may have bottomed out. Bitcoin has been trading in a steady range around $60,000–$75,000 for several weeks, indicating consolidation. ETF flows are also slightly positive since late February, marking a turnaround from the heavy selling seen since last October. As impulsive selling slowed, sell-side liquidity weakened, suggesting medium- to long-term investors are increasingly stepping in as buyers. Another supportive sign: the amount of Bitcoin held for more than six months has started to rise again after a late-year decline, which helps explain why price has not slipped below $60,000. On the ETF catalyst front, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas said Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) received an NYSE listing notice, implying a potential near-term launch. Market attention will also likely focus on the expected management fee of about 0.24%, potentially below iShares’ Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). However, Iran-related uncertainty and rising oil prices remain key risk factors. If a much-discussed Iran deal stays unsigned, regional energy supply could deteriorate, pushing energy and food inflation higher and potentially forcing the US Fed toward rate hikes as soon as 2026—an overhang for crypto volatility. Overall, Bitcoin-related ETF demand and supply stabilization are bullish signals, but macro/geopolitical shocks could still drive near-term swings.