Bitcoin and Ether near trend-reversal levels as CPI stays high
Macro investor Jordi Visser says Bitcoin and Ether could be set for a sustainable 2026 rally if key resistance breaks. He highlights Bitcoin above $76,000 and Ethereum above $2,400 as the start of a “move that will be sustainable this year,” arguing recession risk is lower.
Bitcoin would need about +6.1% from roughly $71,646, while Ether would need roughly +8% from around $2,219. Visser also notes inflation is likely to remain elevated and traders may need yield/returns even if equities (like the S&P 500) move sideways. Market expectations on Kalshi show a 24% chance of recession in 2026.
Fresh data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year in April. This challenges a growing crypto consensus that 2026 has more downside risk, including calls for BTC to revisit below the Feb. 6 low near $60,000. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has separately suggested BTC could retest slightly below the Sep/Oct levels, potentially setting a bear-cycle low.
Overall, the outlook hinges on whether Bitcoin and Ether can reclaim those thresholds amid sticky inflation.
Neutral
这条消息是“情景触发式”的宏观观点：Visser 给出了比特币 76,000 美元、以太坊 2,400 美元这两个可能引发趋势反转的关键位，但同一时间，CPI 数据仍显示通胀偏高（4 月同比 3.3%），而市场对 2026 年衰退的定价（Kalshi 24%）也说明宏观不确定性仍在。
从交易角度看：
- **短期**：若 BTC/ETH 能快速收复并站稳上述关键价位，通常会触发趋势交易者和期权对冲的再定价，带来情绪改善与流动性回暖；相反，若价格冲高回落，可能会强化“通胀粘性+风险资产仍承压”的交易逻辑。
- **中长期**：文中同时提到部分观点仍看向 60,000 美元附近甚至更低（Brandt 对熊市低点的可能性），因此该消息对方向的确定性不强，更像是“等待确认”的指标。
与过去类似的宏观驱动周期相比，CPI/通胀数据常常决定风险资产波动率：当通胀数据未明显缓和时，行情往往更依赖关键技术位的有效突破来完成“从震荡到趋势”的切换。因此整体更偏中性：具备偏多触发条件，但被通胀与衰退预期的不确定性所抵消。