Crypto market at risk as $28B Bitcoin & Ethereum options expire — BTC technicals warn of downside
The crypto market pulled back during the U.S. trading session as traders awaited the largest options expiry of the year. Over $23 billion of Bitcoin options and more than $4 billion of Ethereum options — roughly $28 billion in total — are set to expire on Deribit. Bitcoin’s options show a put-call ratio of 0.38 (bullish skew) with major call concentration between $100,000–$116,000 and a maximum pain point at $96,000. Ether’s put-call ratio sits around 0.43–0.45, with strike concentration between $3,000–$3,100 and a maximum pain point at $3,000. Low holiday trading volumes may amplify volatility around the expiry. Technicals for BTC are pointing toward downside risk: a rising wedge, bearish pennant, and an approaching death cross (50- and 200-day WMAs narrowing). Analysts warn Bitcoin could retest the November low near $80,000, with a break below that level exposing $75,000. Short-term volatility is expected around the expiry; traders should monitor options gamma, strike concentrations, maximum pain levels, and thin holiday liquidity for potential rapid moves.
Bearish
The combination of a very large options expiry (~$28B) and thin holiday liquidity increases the likelihood of sharp directional moves; that is typically bearish risk in the immediate term because large call concentrations and maximum pain levels can trigger squeeze dynamics and aggressive hedging flows. Bitcoin’s on-chain derivatives data shows a bullish skew in option flow (low put-call ratio), but options expiries often create elevated volatility and direction-neutral ‘pain’ outcomes that can force markets toward the maximum pain strikes if market makers hedge aggressively. Technical indicators also point to downside: rising wedge and bearish pennant patterns plus an approaching death cross historically precede corrective moves. Together, these factors increase the probability of short-term losses — possible retest of $80,000, with a lower target near $75,000 if support breaks. Over the medium to long term the event is neutral-to-bearish: once the expiry passes volatility often subsides and directional bias depends on macro liquidity and on-chain demand. Traders should manage risk by reducing size, using stop limits, or hedging with options (protective puts, collar strategies) and monitoring strike concentrations, gamma exposure, and funding rates during and after expiry.