Bitcoin exchange inflows fall but whales still driving deposits — CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant reports that overall Bitcoin deposits to centralized exchanges have declined from a peak of ~60,000 BTC on Feb. 6 to about 23,000 BTC average over the past seven days, easing near-term sell pressure. However, the composition of those inflows has shifted: the Exchange Whale Ratio — the top 10 inflows as a share of total deposits — hit 0.64, the highest since 2015, indicating 64% of exchange inflows came from the largest depositors. Bitcoin is down ~46% from its October high (~$126k) and recent trading near $67k. CryptoQuant warns that the "ultimate bear market bottom" may be around $55k and notes reduced stablecoin dry powder (USDT) on exchanges, which could limit immediate buying power. Key implications for traders: reduced aggregate exchange inflows may ease selling pressure, but concentrated whale selling raises downside risk and volatility; traders should watch exchange inflows, whale ratio, realized price (~$55k) and stablecoin balances as near-term market signals.
Bearish
Although aggregate Bitcoin deposits to exchanges have declined sharply from the early-February spike — which should reduce immediate systemic sell pressure — the shift in deposit composition toward the largest holders (exchange whale ratio at 0.64) is a clear bearish signal. Concentrated selling by whales can overwhelm limited buy-side liquidity, amplify volatility and push prices lower even while total inflows fall. CryptoQuant’s identification of a realized-price ‘ultimate bottom’ near $55k and the observation of reduced stablecoin dry powder further support downside risk: fewer stablecoins on exchanges reduce potential bid support, making rebounds harder. Historically, episodes where a small number of large holders increase exchange outflows (e.g., 2017–2018 redistribution phases and some 2022 sell waves) coincided with extended drawdowns and elevated volatility. Short-term traders should expect continued choppy price action and heightened risk of sharp declines if whales continue to deposit. Longer-term, if whale selling abates and stablecoin balances rebuild, selling pressure could normalize and create stabilization or buying opportunities nearer the realized-price support. Key monitoring points: exchange inflows, Exchange Whale Ratio, exchange stablecoin balances (USDT/USDC), and realized price levels.