Bitcoin Mirrors Late‑2022 Bear Market as Fear Index Hits ’Extreme Fear’ — Analysts See Range‑Bound Accumulation
Analyst Vetle Lunde of K33 says Bitcoin’s current market structure resembles the late‑2022 bear phase: lower speculative activity, falling open positions and reduced leverage in futures markets. The Fear & Greed Index has slid into the “extreme fear” territory, a condition that historically coincides with the unwinding of weak hands and diminished volatility. Lunde expects Bitcoin to trade in a broad consolidation range around $60,000–$75,000 in the near term, creating accumulation opportunities for long‑term holders while frustrating short‑term traders. The recent deleveraging is viewed as a structural reset that can set the stage for future recoveries, but Lunde cautions investors that a quick rally is unlikely and that a prolonged sideways phase is the more probable path.
Neutral
The article signals a neutral market impact. Key indicators — reduced leverage, falling open interest, and the Fear & Greed Index at “extreme fear” — point to deleveraging and lower volatility rather than immediate directional conviction. Historically, similar conditions (late 2022) preceded extended consolidation and later marked the base for rallies, but the transition from deleveraging to sustained bullish momentum took time. Short term: expect choppy, range‑bound trading (Lunde’s $60k–$75k band) that limits breakout trading opportunities and heightens whipsaw risk for leveraged positions. Long term: the structural reset (lower speculative exposure) can improve market health and set foundations for renewed upward trends once macro catalysts or inflows return. Traders should reduce leverage, prefer position sizing for accumulation, and wait for clear breakout confirmation or changes in sentiment/flow metrics before assuming a bullish stance.