Bitcoin Eyes $81K Ahead of Fed Jackson Hole—Warsh on Crypto Payments
Bitcoin flirted with $81,000 on Thursday, briefly hitting $80,793 before slipping to about $80,236. It is up over 2% on the day and up ~10% over the week, with the Fear & Greed Index rising to 71 (“Greed”).
Catalyst risk is macro. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a keynote at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting in Wyoming. The theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,” with explicit references to cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. Warsh’s speech is his first major address as chair.
Traders are also watching U.S. policy signals. The long-awaited crypto Clarity Act vote has been pushed to September. Still, President Donald Trump called the bill “very, very powerful,” urging lawmakers to pass it. The proposal aims to create a framework for classifying digital assets as securities, commodities, or payment stablecoins.
Separately, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Treasury will double long-dated bond buybacks. That move is expected to lower yields, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and supporting risk-on sentiment.
Net: near-term price action appears driven by a mix of improving regulation expectations and potentially easier rates into Jackson Hole.
Bullish
The news is broadly supportive for BTC in the short term. Bitcoin is already in a strong momentum phase (+~10% weekly) and the sentiment gauge (Fear & Greed at 71) signals “Greed,” which often attracts incremental dip-buying.
The key macro angle is Warsh at Jackson Hole explicitly covering cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. When Fed officials frame crypto-related payments as part of “financial innovation,” it can reduce perceived policy risk and improve the probability of a more constructive stance—similar to past periods where clearer communication from policymakers tightened the “headline risk” premium and helped BTC rally.
Meanwhile, rate and yield dynamics are a second tailwind. Bessent’s plan to expand long-dated bond buybacks points to lower yields, which historically favors non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold. Lower yields usually compress the opportunity cost of holding BTC, supporting risk-on positioning.
Risks remain: the Clarity Act vote is delayed to September, meaning regulatory certainty is not immediate. Also, Warsh has been reluctant to cut rates; any hawkish tilt at Jackson Hole could trigger profit-taking and a volatility spike. Net effect: bullish bias, with the highest trading sensitivity around Warsh’s speech and subsequent rate/yield headlines.