Bitcoin Eyes $45K ‘Fair Value’ as AI-Driven Risk Sends BTC Toward $60K
Bitcoin fell toward $60,000 during the U.S. session as macro risk sentiment—driven in part by renewed AI worries and geopolitical/trade tensions—hit stocks and gold. Technical analysts flagged bearish signals: Bitcoin closed weekly below the 200-week EMA, which can flip that moving average from support to resistance and historically precedes accelerated downside after bearish retests. Traders cited a likely continuation of the “slow bleed” with near-term $60,000 downside targets. Some analysts point to a “fair value gap” around $45,000 (a low-liquidity inefficiency created by rapid moves) as a probable area for the market to fill before a meaningful bottom forms. The $40K–$50K band remains the popular range for potential BTC lows. This article highlights trader commentary and technical setups rather than offering investment advice.
Bearish
The coverage highlights multiple bearish drivers for BTC: macro risk from AI fears and geopolitical/trade tensions, correlated weakness in stocks and gold, and key technical deterioration—most notably a weekly close below the 200-week EMA. Historical precedents show that losing the 200-week EMA and then retesting it as resistance often precedes accelerated downside, supporting trader calls for $60K and lower. The mention of a ‘fair value gap’ near $45K suggests traders expect further downside to fill liquidity inefficiencies before a sustainable bottom. Short-term impact: higher volatility and probable continued selling pressure as algorithmic and momentum traders react to technical breaks and cross-asset weakness. Long-term impact: if BTC fills the $45K gap and re-establishes support above major moving averages, it could set the stage for renewed accumulation; conversely, failure to find demand in the $40K–$50K band could extend bearish momentum. Overall, the signals favor near-term downside bias until technical structure and macro sentiment improve. Past similar events (weekly close below 200-week EMA followed by bearish retest) resulted in notable drawdowns, reinforcing the cautious outlook.