Bitcoin’s ‘Fall Season’ Prompts Morgan Stanley Caution
Bitcoin entered a short-term correction in early November, dropping below $99,000 and its 365-day moving average—a technical signal often seen as the start of a market pullback. Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo described this phase as Bitcoin’s “fall season” on the Crypto Goes Mainstream podcast, urging investors to harvest gains after three years of rally. Immediate support lies between $100,000 and $102,000, with resistance near $110,000, according to CoinSwitch. Cooling liquidity across stablecoins, ETFs and digital asset treasuries is likely to heighten volatility as leveraged positions unwind. Major altcoins—Ethereum, Solana and Cardano—suffered losses of 3.5% to over 8%, dragging total crypto market capitalization down to $3.52 trillion. Despite the short-term caution, Morgan Stanley remains positive on Bitcoin’s long-term role as digital gold, backed by $137 billion in spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional adoption.
Bearish
Morgan Stanley’s warning and Bitcoin’s drop below its 365-day moving average signal growing short-term bearish sentiment. Profit-taking after a multi-year rally often triggers corrections, as seen in 2018 and 2021 when similar technical breaches led to multi-month pullbacks. Weakening liquidity in stablecoins, ETFs and digital treasuries increases the risk of amplified volatility as leveraged traders unwind positions. While long-term fundamentals remain strong—driven by institutional demand and ETF inflows—the immediate outlook is bearish. Traders may see further declines toward the $100,000 support zone before a stabilizing rebound, mirroring past “fall season” cycles in Bitcoin’s four-year pattern.