Bitcoin Falls 50% from Peak; Traders, Prediction Markets Expect Further Drop to ~$55K
Bitcoin dropped below $63,000, marking a decline of roughly 50% from its October all-time high of $126,080. The move pushed sentiment toward pessimism on prediction markets: Myriad users place about a 71% chance BTC falls to $55,000 before recovering to $84,000. Bitcoin has lost roughly 28% over the past month and traded as low as $62,802 (CoinGecko). Analysts attribute the sell-off to compounding macro shocks — notably a new 10% U.S. tariff on imports and the resulting policy standoff between the White House and the Supreme Court — driving risk-off flows into assets like gold. Some on-chain and market metrics are signalling capitulation-level readings and buy signals typical of cycle bottoms, but experts warn macro headwinds and leveraged positioning could prevent a sustained recovery. Short-term outlook: elevated volatility and downside risk as prediction markets and flows lean bearish. Medium-to-long-term: recovery remains possible if macro shocks abate, but timing is uncertain.
Bearish
The news signals a bearish near-term outlook. Key factors: BTC has fallen ~50% from its peak and lost ~28% in the past month; prediction markets (Myriad) assign a high probability (~71%) of a further drop to $55K before recovery; macro policy shock (new 10% U.S. tariff and legal standoff) is explicitly cited as driving risk-off flows and adding volatility. Historically, comparable macro shocks and leverage-driven liquidations (e.g., during major policy surprises or rate-shock episodes) have produced rapid downside moves and sustained outflows from crypto investment products. Although some on-chain metrics show capitulation-level buy signals that have coincided with cycle lows in the past, the presence of strong macro headwinds and continued outflows raises the risk that any bounce will be short-lived. For traders: expect higher volatility, potential shorting opportunities or defensive positioning (reduce leverage, widen stops) in the short term. If macro conditions stabilize and outflows reverse, medium-to-long-term recovery is possible — but timing remains uncertain, so position sizing and risk management are crucial.